China’s population in 2022 dropped for the first time in more than 60 years. The country had 1.41175 billion people at the end of 2022 compared to 1.41260 billion at the end of 2021, now latest data predicts that India will surpass China in population this year. That is a drop of approximately 850,000 people.
The global population as a whole will peak either in the 2080s or 2090s -depending on when Africa will slow down- and then it will start falling. However this does not mean Earth is in the clear at all. No matter what -well, unless WW3 happens- we will peak at ~10 billion people from the current 8 billion.
In terms of births, China fared even worse in 2022, with a million fewer new births than in 2021. According to the predictions, China’s population will keep falling because of the 1.28 births per woman in 2020, which is reported to be lower even than Japan’s.
The Chinese government contributed to this ‘demographic bomb’ problem by retaining the ‘One child per couple’ policy many years after it was no longer required. Then they abruptly reversed course, motivating couples to have more children, with subsidies, tax breaks, and other financial incentives (like a cash allowance of $5,550 for a three-child family). But it was too late. China was already ‘Japanised.’
According to reports, most countries in the world face a severe demographic problem of combined low births and higher life expectancy except India and most countries of Africa which remain massive birth engines of our planet. Population of these countries is expected to keep rising until the 2060s despite having already remained steady to 2 births per woman, according to statistics. This is due to an increasing life expectancy among their very high populations, it is said.